The Great API Bait-and-Switch

As AI agents reshape commerce, API dominance becomes the new path to monopoly.

Hi there,

Welcome to all my new subscribers. This week, we return to my weekly essay series where I’m building out a framework for thinking about the transformation required for businesses to win in the AI era. Last week, I wrote about the algorithmic war; today, I examine the composability of APIs and how this mega trend interacts with AI.

The Day the Bill Came Due

In 2018, Google Maps held an almost 90% market share, providing developers with the ability to embed maps on their websites and utilise map data in their tools. It ultimately led to significant price increases, shocking developers, but also highlighting the risks associated with a single vendor’s API endpoint becoming overly dominant.

The ease of use and composability that initially led developers to “easily integrate” with the Google Maps API ended up strengthening Google’s market dominance.

This commercial outcome wasn’t accidental - as AI, APIs, and AI agents become the core components of commerce, this is the new endgame f…