On AI 2027 and Vibe Coding

Superhuman AI research will be awesome until it...isn't?

Hi there,

This week I’m going to write about AI-2027, the latest AI prediction story taking the internet by storm, and check in on Windsurf AI vibe coding for a new side project.

Part 1: What is AI 2027?

AI prediction is hard, but AI-2027 is a recent attempt at sketching out how AI might evolve over the next few years.

The authors are AI researchers Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, Thomas Larsen, and Romeo Dean, while Scott Alexander helped improve the writing.

In other words, if ordinary human science would have run up against diminishing returns and physical limits after 5 -10 years of further research, then AIs with a 100x multiplier would run up against those same diminishing returns and limits after 18.25–36.5 days of research.

Here are some of their forecasts for capability in 2027: